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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."