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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.