This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six games, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.